AVIV TEL— According to two people with knowledge of the situation, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has informed the Biden administration that he is prepared to launch a more limited counterattack against Iran that would attempt to avert a full-scale conflict, targeting military targets rather than oil or nuclear installations.
Fearing that the two nations’ decades-long shadow war could degenerate into a direct military conflict, the Middle East has prepared for Israel’s vowed reaction in the two weeks since Iran launched its most recent missile bombardment on Israel, its second direct attack in six months. Less than a month before the election, it occurs at a politically sensitive moment in Washington, where President Joe Biden has openly stated that he would not back an Israeli strike on nuclear-related targets.
When Netanyahu and Biden discussed Wednesday — their
Israel would reply to the Iranian strike, Israeli Defense Minister Yoga Gallant promised Tuesday, describing it as “precise, painful, and surprising.” “We are not interested in opening additional fronts or new conflicts,” he continued.
There was no immediate response from the White House. “We listen to the opinions of the United States, but we will make our final decisions based on our national interest,” the Israeli prime minister’s office stated in a statement.
The official with knowledge of the situation stated that the retaliatory attack would be calibrated to avoid the perception of “political interference in the U.S. elections,” indicating that Netanyahu is aware that the extent of the Israeli strike may change the course of the presidential contest.
While an attack on Iran’s nuclear program might eliminate any residual red lines controlling Israel’s battle with Tehran, causing greater escalation and raising the possibility of a more direct U.S. military engagement, analysts say an Israeli strike on Iranian oil facilities could send energy prices skyrocketing. Netanyahu’s
The U.S. official described the call between the two leaders and said Netanyahu was in a “more moderated place” in that talk than he had been in the past. Both individuals stated that Biden’s decision to deliver Israel a potent missile defense system was influenced by the prime minister’s seeming softening of his position.
The U.S. official said the president was more likely to do it after that call.
The Pentagon said Sunday it was sending approximately 100 U.S. military personnel and its anti-ballistic Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, or THAAD, battery system to Israel. U.S. authorities said Tuesday that the system’s first components and an advance team of workers had landed in Israel the day before. Additional staff and parts would keep coming in.
According to the Pentagon, the system’s deployment “underscores the United States’ commitment to the defense of Israel.”
The official with knowledge of the situation stated that the Israeli strike on Iran would take place prior to the November 5 U.S. elections since a delay could be seen by Iran as a display of weakness. She stated, “It will be one of several responses.”
Netanyahu would have to strike a compromise between the Israeli public’s desire for a decisive response and Washington’s calls for restraint, according to Zohar Plait, a former intelligence director for Israel’s Mossad espionage agency.
He claimed that the Iranians had abandoned all of their previous restraint. “Israel cannot fight without U.S. weapons,” Plait admitted. However, Israel “knows how to do the job” and “takes the risks.”
According to the person with knowledge of the situation, Netanyahu met with his security cabinet for three hours on Thursday night to go over the alternatives available, but he purposefully left the timing open-ended and did not ask for official approval for the strike.
The Israeli defense establishment is worried that the strike won’t be strong enough or widely known enough to prevent Iran from attacking Israel directly again or from creating nuclear weapons.
According to Hebrew University political professor Gayle Talcher, who has contacts with high-ranking officials in Israel’s defense establishment, “the Israeli military wants to hit Iran’s military leadership because it doesn’t hurt the people and it doesn’t erupt the region into a larger war.” “But Netanyahu doesn’t think that way.”
Israel retaliated with a targeted attack on an air facility in Isfahan, central Iran, in April after a U.S.-led military coalition assisted Israel in intercepting hundreds of Iranian drones and missiles in a massive but well-planned operation. With the exception of far-right National Security Minister Isamar Ben Giver, who said on social media that the response was “lame!” following the incident, Israeli politicians remained largely silent.
The assassination of Hezbollah leader Hasan Nasrallah and other successful Israeli operations against Iran and its proxies were followed on October 1 by Tehran firing nearly 200 ballistic missiles at Israel, this time unexpectedly, killing a Palestinian man in the West Bank and striking at least two military installations. Iran’s ambassador to the UN, Amir Saeid Iravani, stated that the attack was intended to “restore balance and deterrence.”
Lebanon stated, “They didn’t understand the message when we replied the last time.” “There is now a choice between restraint and retaliation, and the answer is clear.”
However, Israel is already engaged in combat on several fronts. For the first time in almost 20 years, hundreds of Israeli troops entered southern Lebanon late last month, and the military launched yet another brutal attack in northern Gaza last week. Those close to Netanyahu’s team have expressed strategic patience with Tehran.
In a statement leaked to Israeli media on Sunday, Netanyahu family adviser Natan Eshel stated, “I think we will have to wait with Iran, just as we waited with [Hezbollah in] Lebanon, and with [Hamas in Gaza] in the south.” “We’ll obtain
Netanyahu also seemed to be following Washington’s lead on timing: According to a former senior Israeli defense source knowledgeable with current security conversations, the US is “giving Israel and the Netanyahu government a bear hug, but for Hezbollah.” “It says we can deal with Iran later, but it is sending THAAD and promising all the weapons we need to destroy Hezbollah.”
Despite growing international outrage over the war’s civilian toll and Israeli clashes with U.N. peacekeepers tasked with border monitoring, the White House has so far fully supported Israel’s ground operations in Lebanon, despite months of fruitless efforts to bring about a cease-fire in Gaza that have caused tensions between Netanyahu and Biden.
Following high-profile attacks that shocked and infuriated U.S. officials, such as an attack on Iranian commanders close to a diplomatic facility in Damascus, Syria, and the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, Netanyahu has stepped up coordination with Washington.
According to an Israeli person close to the prime minister, Netanyahu would not wait for Washington’s approval before consulting with U.S. authorities about Israel’s impending action against Iran.
“[Netanyahu] will be the one to decide how Israel will respond to Iran,” he stated.
The intricate and interconnected political realities in Tehran and Washington loom large over the ultimate choice. Political analyst Tashiro stated that Netanyahu’s group was concerned about the recent
Leading Israeli politicians, such as former prime minister Naftali Bennett, are still advocating for an assault on Iran’s nuclear installations. He claimed that any less would jeopardize the momentum Israel has built up from its battles in Gaza and Lebanon.
He claimed that both Hamas and Hezbollah, Iran’s proxies, had significantly reduced capabilities. Israel has every excuse it might possibly need. We are capable. We have an opportunity that comes only once in a lifetime.
Washington was where Nakashima reported. Contributions to this article came from Bryan Pietsch and Missy Ryan in Washington and Loir Sorokin in Tel Aviv.
